UK commercial property update and outlook
March 2024
UK commercial property return was relatively stable in February after the periods of volatility during the pandemic and the more recent sharp rise in interest rates. Investor sentiment has undoubtedly picked up as anticipated in Q1, but the market continues to be characterised by a lack of investment supply. The outlook for annual returns is more positive but they will likely still be subdued in 2024. There is more scope for stronger performance in 2025 if interest rates are cut as anticipated and if occupier markets at that point are expected to meaningfully benefit from the wider economic recovery in 2026/27.
MARCH HIGHLIGHTS
Annual All Property total return, Feb 24
2025 GDP growth forecast
2025 Average CPI inflation forecast
End-2025 Bank Rate forecast
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